There is reason for cautious optimism regarding the future of Wrangell’s economy. Such was the takeaway from the report given to the borough assembly by Department of Economic Development Director Kate Thomas on Oct. 28.

Thomas gave her presentation during a work session using data compiled by Rain Coast Data, a Juneau-based company the borough has used for more than a decade.

According to the company’s reports on Wrangell’s economic conditions and its visitor economy, the town is pulling in two directions in 2025, with surging tourism and expanding health care offset by shrinking commercial fisheries, falling incomes and an aging population.

The local unemployment rate was at 4.9% in March which, according to Thomas, is lower than previous springs. A shortage of job applicants is a constant problem for employers in town.

Thomas noted that much of the negative outlook expressed in the study came from the maritime and seafood industries.

Tourism is entering its strongest stretch in two decades. The city welcomed about 42,000 cruise visitors in 2025 and is projected to receive nearly 80,000 in 2026. Between 2019 and 2024, tourism jobs rose 13% and total wages jumped 46%, making the sector a key engine of growth, according to Rain Coast Data.

“But in order to fully benefit from this influx, the community must develop more shore-excursions to better accommodate higher-volume ships,” the company said in its report.

Population loss remains the city’s most serious long-term threat. Wrangell’s population has fallen 15% since 2012, down to about 2,000 this year, and is projected to drop another 34% by 2050, down to 1,350, according to a state forecast.

Residents 60 and older now make up 37% of the community, up from 10% in 1990, while the number of children and working-age adults keeps shrinking. From 2014 to 2024, Wrangell’s workforce-age population fell 29%, the steepest decline in Southeast Alaska.

Just from 2020 to 2024, the town lost 147 working-age residents — defined as between the ages of 20 and 64 — according to a state report in January.

Health care has become Wrangell’s largest industry and a stabilizing force. In 2024, it generated $15.2 million in wages and supported 171 jobs, outpacing government and seafood, according to Rain Coast Data. Since 2016, health care employment has grown 53%, anchored by SEARHC’s Wrangell Medical Center.

Seafood, once the town’s cornerstone alongside timber, is under pressure. The sector still provided 18% of jobs and 20% of wages in 2024, but the value of the catches is at historic lows.

The value of seafood landed in Wrangell in 2024 was 50% below 2019 levels as poor salmon runs, global oversupply and low prices hit earnings. Dungeness crab in 2024 accounted for nearly half of local fishery value, the economic report said.

Poor commercial fishing numbers are among the factors holding back household income in Wrangell. The median household income in town in 2023 was $64,545 — 25% below the statewide median, which is bolstered by high-wage oil industry jobs, and 36% below Southeast, the report said. It also is 17% below the U.S. median.

The gap is wider than in 2018, when Wrangell trailed the national average by only 4%.

From 2018 to 2023, inflation rose 18% while median household income in town climbed just 12%.

One item in the report that surprised Thomas was the number 388: That’s how many vacant housing units the report said existed in Wrangell in April 2024. That’s out of 1,300 housing units in town, the report said.

Anyone who has tried to find a house or an apartment to buy or rent would seriously question the number 388.

“I would like to take a closer look at that and see how many of the properties are seasonal housing,” Thomas said. “There is no vacancy rate for efficiency units — meaning one or two-bedroom type apartment unit rentals.”