Federal study lists northwest Alaska climate change winners

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) – Some northwest Alaska bird species could benefit from climate change but increased temperatures could harm populations of several mammals, a federal study has concluded.

More shrubs and trees and less tundra could help tree-dwellers such as northern goshawks, according to the study, which predicted changes in boreal and Arctic habitats used by 162 bird species and 39 land mammals in northweast Alaska.

But rising temperatures and other trends could harm species that need open space, that feed on lichens, or that use coast or river habitats, the Alaska Dispatch News (http://bit.ly/1IbwETE ), an Anchorage newspaper, reported.

The study projects spruce, birch and aspen forests to move north and areas of tall willows to expand.

“That favors some species of raptors, woodpeckers, songbirds, porcupine, black bears,” said lead author Bruce Marcot, a research wildlife biologist at the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station. “It'll also create habitat for some of the large ungulates, especially moose,” he said.

The thaw of permafrost, lake shrinkage, coastal erosion, vegetation transformations, more wildfires and other changes will diminish habitat for migratory waterfowl such as tundra swans and greater white-fronted geese, according to the study.

Caribou, which feed on lichens and moss and roam huge expanses of tundra, could be hurt, the study concluded.

The study uses three scenarios to predict the bird and mammal habitat outcomes.

The most conservative scenario simply projects changes already seen in the past 30 years. Under that scenario, about half the bird species will experience habitat increases and about half will experience habitat decline, while 62 percent of the mammal species will see habitat decline.

Habitat changes are project to have ripple effects. Expansion of trees would draw more moose, which would attract more wolves, which could prey on Dall sheep, Marcot said.

Habitat of small burrowing animals such as shrews and voles would get topped by tall shrubs, resulting in less prey for some raptors and carnivores, Marcot said.

The study was published last month in the journal Climatic Change.