Fish Factor

“Unsettled” best describes the mood among brokers in the business of buying, selling and trading Alaska salmon permits and quota shares of various catches.

For salmon permits, “the dust hasn’t really settled” since the season ended, said Doug Bowen of Alaska Boats and Permits in Homer, but at the moment, prices are tanking across the board.

“There were a few bright spots but several areas in the state did not do well, either because of production or price or both. That’s put a downward press on permit prices,” he added.

Bristol Bay drift gillnet permits have taken the biggest hit after another huge sockeye run ran into a perfect storm of backlogged markets, depressed global currencies and record imports of foreign farmed fish. Bay fishermen were shocked to get a base price of 50 cents a pound, down from an average $1.34 last summer.

“Those permit prices in the spring were as high as $175,000 and last week we sold one for $112,000. That’s a big drop in just a few short months. And we see a similar pattern with other salmon gillnet permits,” Bowen said, adding that “there is almost no interest – not yet anyway.”

Likewise, there’s little action in the salmon seine permit market.

“It will be interesting to see what happens at Prince William Sound,” Bowen said. “They had a record year with 97 million pinks but got just 20 cents a pound. So great production, lousy price. There are several permits on the market at $200K, but no interest. And at Kodiak, several seine permits are listed at under $40,000, but again, no interest yet.”

Salmon power troll permits were the only ones moving in Southeast Alaska, according to Olivia Olsen at Alaskan Quota and Permits in Petersburg. At listings of $35,000 to $46,000 “those are still down $5,000,” she said.

Both brokers agree that as salmon forecasts come out for next year, buying interest is likely to tick up. But a bad

fishing season means there is not a lot of excess capital

floating around to upgrade or buy a new boat, or add

another permit to a fishing portfolio.

“It was a dismal season the way the prices were,” said Olsen. “They might be catching more fish, but prices were too low to come out ahead. And if salmon prices stay down, guys are going to turn their interest to other areas.”

“It’s still early,” said Bowen. “We’ll see how this plays out.

Halibut shares higher than ever – Anticipation that Alaska’s halibut catch limits might increase again next year has brought quota share sales to a “wait and see” standstill. Halibut quota is valued by region and various categories, all of which affect the offer/sales prices.

“You can survey all the broker sites and sometime you won’t see one pound of 2C (Southeast) or 3A (Central Gulf) and very little 3B (Western Gulf) quota on the market,” Bowen said. “And sellers who do decide to sell quota want top dollar for it. And there are enough buyers out there who believe the catch limits in those areas are going up and they are willing to pay record high prices.”

The price spike is driven by continuing high dock prices for halibut that this year have often topped $7 a pound at major ports.

Last week Bowen’s shop sold Central Gulf halibut quota shares for $50 a pound “which is definitely the highest it’s ever traded for,” he said. For the Southeast region, Olsen said there is “big demand, but no quota to sell,” adding that prices have gone up to $55 a pound in some categories.

“I hope these folks who think these catch limits are headed up are right, but I’m not convinced,” said Doug Bowen. “It’s been a long downward trend and just last year in the Central Gulf we took a 34 percent cut. We did get a little bit of an overall increase, but I don’t know if that signals that we are out of the woods and the resource is rebounding.”

The industry will get a first glimpse at preliminary halibut catch limits at the International Pacific Halibut Commission’s interim meeting in early December. The final numbers will be announced at the IPHC January meeting in Juneau. This year’s total catch limit for Alaska was 17 million pounds, up from 15.5 million last year and the first overall increase in a decade.

Crab quota crunch – New rules for owning shares of Bering Sea crab are prompting more sales action, especially for skippers and crew holding quota.

A federal requirement went into place this year that restricts quota share ownership to active participants in the crab fisheries.

“In the past there were no restrictions as far as

participation and future ownership. But if you are not participating now and don’t participate in the future, a revocation of quota could occur by July 1, 2019,” said Jeff Osborn, the “go to” crab share expert

at Dock Street Brokers in Seattle.

“There are a number of guys who were awarded or purchased crab shares and have since gone on to other careers or had health issues, and they’ve been able to have their annual shares harvested and receive a royalty,” he explained. “But if they are unable to fish anymore, they can’t continue to do that. The new rules require him to get rid of the shares, or they’ll be taken back and redistributed among existing shareholders.”

That has prompted the recent uptick in listings, he said, and pushed down prices.

“I think the intent of the rule change is to provide

people who are continuously involved in the fishery better access to crab. Although the intent is admirable, I think the effect is negative,” Osborn

said.

There is an assumption that a big pool of people are

interested in acquiring quota shares, he said, but he believes that is wrong on two counts.

“For one, you’ve got to

be able to come up with financing in order to purchase it. And if you’re working on a crab boat now and interested in

picking up some crew quota, but you know you’ll be forced to sell it if you have a

career change, it takes a

bit of the shine off the

prospect of ownership,” Osborn said.

The Bering Sea crab shares fall into four different

categories, and the value for crew shares is down roughly 20 percent. Dock Street listings show Bristol Bay red king crab at $45 per pound, snow crab ranging from $14 - $20 and Tanner crab at $8 - $14 per pound.

“But those prices are not representative of the current market and are based on last year’s catches,” Osborn

clarified. “Everything will change in two weeks when this year’s catch numbers come out.”

Salmon Day – October 8 is being hailed as National Salmon Day in a promotion spawned by Chicken of the Sea.

“Tuna has a day, lobster, crab, even clams have a day. We thought that the second most popular seafood in the US deserved to have its own day. We are trying to make it accessible to everyone in the United States and all over the world,” said company spokesman Bob Ochsner, adding that Chicken of the Sea is a leader in canned and pouched salmon sales.

The cities of San Diego and Chicago are having special Salmon Day celebrations, along with national “Pink Up Your Lunch” Twitter parties and prize offerings. Visit Chicken of the Sea for free downloadable coupons, recipes and more. (www.ChickenoftheSea.com/salmon)