This chart compares annual harvests of pink salmon in Southeast Alaska to Alaska Department of Fish and Game preseason forecasts from 1998 to the present. The 2016 forecast is predicting an average year for pinks, on par with last year's disappointing harvest.
The upcoming pink salmon run is expected to be about the same size as that in 2015, according to this month's Alaska Department of Fish and Game forecast.
ADF&G predicts the 2016 harvest will be strong, with a point estimate of 34 million pink salmon. The forecast was produced by projecting the trend in harvest averages for the period spanning between 1960 and 2010, adjusted using 2015 juvenile pink salmon abundance data.
Adjustments were made using peak June-July juvenile pink salmon catch-per-unit-effort statistics provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Auke Bay Laboratories. The data was obtained from surveys conducted each year in the upper Chatham and Icy straits, along with NOAA's Southeast Coastal Monitoring Project.
The 2016 harvest forecast of 34 million pink salmon runs below the recent 10-year average harvest of 38 million. The 2015 Auke Bay laboratory survey ranked 13th out of 19 years of collected data.
Pink salmon run in two-year cycles, with odd-year runs tending to have the stronger showing. Pinks made up the majority of all salmon caught by fishermen in Southeast this year, around three-quarters. However, the 34 million pink salmon caught were well below a projection of 58 million made by ADF&G last autumn.
Some of the problems thought to have affected this year's harvest are anticipated to continue into 2016. The ADF&G report identifies persistent warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska as the largest potential source of uncertainty regarding next year's actual return. With the warm waters come new competition for native fish, as species typically found further south – albacore, ocean sunfish, skipjack tuna, and Pacific pompano – have been reported in the Gulf of Alaska.
The recent poor performance of even-year returns is also a worry. Though the harvest in 2014 was better than anticipated, escapement indices for pink salmon in 2014 were below management targets for 17 of 21 stock groups, which ADF&G suggests may indicate continued poor harvests in northern inside waters.
Coupled with the disappointing harvest, the plummeting price of pink salmon has compounded problems for Southeast fishermen. Abundant catches abroad and a boost in farmed stocks have contributed to dropping prices, on average 20 cents per pound.
The 34 million pink salmon caught this year only brought around $26 million to the region's fishermen. Contrast that with prices at an average high of 48 cents in 2012, where the modest even-year harvest of 21 million fish was still valued at $36.6 million.
If economic conditions remain as they are and the harvest meets projections, 2016 may well resemble its predecessor.
Reader Comments(0)