A breakdown of five salmon species shows how much of an impact each makes to Southeast Alaska's maritime community. Though pinks have traditionally made up the greatest share of the catch, in terms of value chum and coho have made up a significant part of exvessel value due to declining
A district management map subdivides the waters around Wrangell. In the event of a closure to king salmon next year in District 8, Wrangell's annual King Salmon Derby may still take place if fishing is open in districts 6 and 7. Region-wide restrictions would likely mean having to cancel or else alter the competition.
A preseason forecast for next year's king salmon return to the Stikine River has come up worryingly short, boding ill for local fisheries.
Released last week by Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the preseason terminal run size forecast for the Stikine River was at only 6,900 fish, less than half the lower threshold of the stock's escapement goal range. The Stikine EGR is between 14,000 and 28,000 Chinook salmon, and such a low forecast does not allow for an allowable catch under treaty management.
On the Taku River the forecast is more grim, with a projection of 4,700 king salmon in a range of from 19,000 to 36,000 fish. Though inseason terminal run size estimates for both rivers may be produced next year, ADFG noted 2018 will be unlikely to see any directed fisheries for Chinook in either. The forecast is expected to affect directed fisheries upstream in Canada as well.
"We've seen here recently a downward trend in Chinook salmon runs for Southeast Alaska. Not just the Stikine and the Taku, but regionwide," explained Steve Heinl, a fisheries biologist with ADFG in Ketchikan.
ADFG's Commercial Fisheries Division in late September issued a letter to the state Board of Fisheries conveying its concern for king salmon stocks on the Chilkat, King Salmon and Unuk rivers. In four of the previous five consecutive years the stocks there have failed to meet escapement goals, and incremental measures to reduce harvest in commercial, sport and subsistence fisheries have failed to reverse the trend of underperformance. The division director recommended designating them stocks of concern as a result.
Executive director for the Alaska Trolling Association Dale Kelley said the problem has impacted trollers across much of the region. Though in numbers king salmon make up a small proportion of total salmon caught in Southeast – about 0.3 percent in number, and about 0.79 percent by weight – the species makes up a good share of the overall salmon harvest's value.
For trollers in particular, the proportion of king salmon makes up at least half their total earnings. Restrictions and closures for king salmon across the region this past year have therefore had a devastating impact on the fleet, Kelley explained, and the expectation is that 2018 will be worse.
"When you see a regionwide decline like that it's because they're all experiencing something in the marine environment that's not conducive to high survival rates of Chinook salmon," said Heinl. The effects have not only affected river-spawning king salmon but also those raised in hatcheries. "We've seen similar signals with other species as well," he added.
Poor marine survival has been thought to be the main culprit, related to abnormally warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska persisting for several years into 2016. Though temperatures have appeared to have cooled since, continued declines in the stock of king salmon, pinks and sockeye suggest the impacts may be longer lasting.
"What that tells us is there's been some sort of a change, a response to the change in temperature," Heinl said.
Competition could be one factor, with the arrival of sunfish, tuna and other species to the Gulf during the warm period. That may have impacted the prey available to developing salmon. In recent years Chinook have been coming back sooner than usual, which is after four or five years, and smaller. Exactly why that is though is difficult to say with certainty, as is the best way to react.
"We are in the process of drafting action plans for that very reason," explained Dan Gray, management coordinator for salmon and herring with ADFG in Douglas. The department will submit a plan likely to impact all gear types to the Board of Fisheries before it meets in Sitka next month.
"We're not quite sure what we're dealing with here," said Kelley. However painful though, she said mitigating damage to the species was a top priority.
"Everybody is going to have to do their bit," she said. "And it's going to hurt across the region."
The impacts will be felt differently by each gear group, as it will to seafood processing, sport and subsistence users. A wider closure on king salmon would have a negative effect on the local seine and troll fisheries, particularly the latter, which makes up around one in 35 jobs in the region.
Recreation and traditional use would also be impacted. Fishery closures on the Taku this year due to low stocks led organizers of Juneau's Spring King Salmon Derby to cancel their event for the first time in two decades. Wrangell's month long derby might face a similar fate this spring for the first time its half-century if the sport fishery here is likewise suspended.
"We have a call in to Fish and Game," said Cyni Crary, the Wrangell Chamber of Commerce's executive director. "I'm concerned, but we haven't decided to cancel our fishing derby as of yet."
The organizing committee will be meeting soon as booklets for the 2018 derby prepare to hit the presses, but the Chamber will likely wait on an action until ADFG issues its announcement for sport fishing early next year.
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