Census shows 10% drop in Wrangell population

The U.S. Census Bureau says Wrangell lost 242 residents between 2010 and 2020 — about 10% of the community’s population.

The borough doesn’t believe it.

“We’re very concerned that the numbers are inaccurate,” Carol Rushmore, Wrangell’s economic development director, said last Friday, a day after the bureau released the numbers that show 2,127 Wrangell residents as of the July 2020 count versus 2,369 in 2010.

“We’re trying to understand if there is any recourse, trying to understand if we can appeal,” Rushmore said.

The borough will reach out to Alaska’s senior U.S. senator, Lisa Murkowski, to learn what options the community might have available.

The population count helps determine how a lot of government funding is allocated between communities, including federal payments in lieu of property taxes to boroughs in the Tongass National Forest. Wrangell this year is budgeted to receive $460,000 in those federal payments, which represent almost 10% of the borough’s general fund revenues excluding pandemic relief aid.

“We’re going to be doing a deeper dive” into the census tally, comparing them to residential utility hookups and other numbers available to the community, Rushmore said.

In addition, she said, the federal count doesn’t match up with Alaska Department of Labor numbers, which the state, and Wrangell, use in between the federal census that is conducted every 10 years.

Working off the 2010 census for Wrangell of 2,369 residents, the Labor Department’s Research and Analysis Division’s annual estimates over the next 10 years peaked at 2,459 in 2016 before declining slightly to 2,379 for 2020.

State analysts look at Permanent Fund dividend applications, birth and death rates, people leaving and moving to Alaska and other statistics in compiling their annual estimates.

Much of Rushmore’s concerns over the accuracy of the census tally in Wrangell stems back to last spring, when the pandemic disrupted in-person counting, and residents received possibly conflicting Census Burau instructions to complete a form online.

“The question is, was everybody really counted,” she said, or did the door-to-door census takers who returned later in the summer miss people or find some unresponsive because residents thought they already had reported online, even if maybe their data wasn’t tallied because of faulty Census Bureau instructions.

Wrangell is not alone in losing population over the past decade, according to the bureau. The count showed population drops in Haines (2,508 to 2,080), Sitka (8,881 to 8,458), and Prince of Wales/Hyder (6,172 to 5,753).

The census showed population gains in the Ketchikan Gateway Borough (13,477 to 13,948 in 2020), Petersburg (3,203 to 3,398), Skagway (968 to 1,240), and the Hoonah-Angoon area (2,149 to 2,365).

Overall, Alaska’s population grew from 710,231 in 2010 to 733,391 in 2020, the Census Bureau reported. The state Labor Department estimate for 2020, however, shows a declining population the past four years, down to 728,903 in last July’s estimate.

The Matanuska-Susitna Borough north of Anchorage gained the most people in the past decade, according to U.S. Census data. The sprawling borough anchored by the communities of Wasilla and Palmer gained 18,086 residents between 2010 and 2020, a growth rate of just over 20%, Census Bureau figures show, putting the borough at 107,081 residents.

The Fairbanks North Star Borough lost the most people in the past decade, nearly 2,000 residents, dropping down to 95,655 residents.

Losing or gaining residents is especially important as the Alaska Redistricting Board is working to redraw legislative district boundaries, based on the 2020 census count. The board announced in April that the target population for each of Alaska’s 40 House districts will be 18,335 residents, with the Matanuska-Susitna Borough expected to gain a House seat — which will come at the expense of other areas of the state.

Wrangell currently shares a House District with Ketchikan, Metlakatla, Hyder and the Prince of Wales Island community of Hydaburg.

The new legislative maps would take effect for the 2022 election.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.