The Haines Borough had its largest population decline in history and the largest of any Alaska borough or census area over the past decade,
according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Haines’ population fell by 17.1% — from 2,508 in 2010 to 2,080 in 2020 — with much of the decline outside of the townsite that used to be considered the city of Haines.
But the census numbers don’t align with the state Labor Department 2020 borough population estimate of 2,520, which was calculated using 2010 census data and Permanent Fund dividend application numbers. In 2020, 2,289 registered borough residents applied for a PFD, compared to 2,276 in 2010.
It’s a similar conflicting story in Wrangell, where the Census Bureau said the count was 2,127 residents, a loss of 242 residents between 2010 and 2020 — about 10% of the population — contrary to the state Labor Department 2020 estimate of 2,379.
Jila Stuart, the Haines Borough’s chief fiscal officer, said “it’s possible” that the census population data will impact “several state and federal programs” that fund the community.
State and borough officials aren’t sure what caused the apparent Haines population decline — or why the census and state numbers don’t align. “Haines is definitely one we’re looking at and saying, ‘Hmm?’” said Eric Sandberg, demographer at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Statistics.
Some theories are that snowbirds or the pandemic skewed the count or that the census numbers are not accurate because Haines had a low self-response rate: 33.8% versus 54.7% statewide, and 67% nationwide. “Self-response rate” refers to the percentage of households that mail completed forms back to the Census Bureau.
Bureau officials, at least in theory, follow up with households that don’t return completed forms.
“It could be Haines has the oldest population in the state. It could be that some of this population is snowbird,” Sandberg said. “Maybe snowbirds were counted as residents of their winter communities instead of Haines.”
The pandemic might have impacted the count, too. “Maybe people decided to be elsewhere from Haines last year,” Sandberg said.
Borough school district enrollment might indicate a population decline but not of the magnitude reflected in the census. Enrollment slimmed by about 13% since the 2010-11 school year. Much of that decline occurred before 2013. Since then, enrollment has remained between 260 and 280 students.
Nationwide there were concerns last year about the accuracy of the census results given that the pandemic interrupted the count. Several municipalities and advocacy groups unsuccessfully sued the Census Bureau for ending data collection two weeks earlier than planned.
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