Wrangell business owners and managers who responded this past spring to an economic outlook survey were about in the middle among Southeast communities.
While about half of those in Wrangell who answered the survey said they expected business would be down the next 12 months, the responses were much more pessimistic in Skagway, Haines, Hoonah and Ketchikan, all of which are more dependent on large cruise ships. In addition, Skagway and Haines have been hit hard by the U.S.-Canada border closure and loss of highway visitor traffic.
Juneau-based Rain Coast Data conducted the survey for the Southeast Conference, a coalition of chambers of commerce and local governments from across the region. The company’s owner, Meilani Schijvens, presented the survey results at the group’s annual meeting Sept. 14 in Haines.
About three-quarters of Skagway businesses expected another bad to much-worse 12 months, with the glum outlook in Haines and Hoonah at about two-thirds and Ketchikan just under that.
The survey was taken in April, before anyone knew how many visitors would come to Southeast this year and whether the fishing season would be better than last year. Both turned out better than 2020, which wasn’t hard considering how bleak that year was for both fish and tourist returns.
The business outlook was positive in Juneau, Petersburg, Sitka, Gustavus and in Prince of Wales Island communities, according to the survey, which counted responses from 440 businesses across Southeast.
Wrangell lost about 8% in wages and 12% in jobs between 2019 and 2020, Rain Coast Data and the Southeast Conference said in their joint annual report on the region’s economy. Skagway was hit hardest last year, with more than a 40% loss in jobs and wages, with Haines losing about 25%.
“OK is all relative, they all survived,” Carol Rushmore, Wrangell’s economic development director, said of local businesses. Some tourism-focused operations in town ended up doing well this past summer from a lot of independent travelers, she said.
One of the big problems now for businesses is filling job openings — and not just in Wrangell. “Every teleconference I have sat in on has been about child care or workforce,” Rushmore said.
Difficulties in hiring, and getting in inventory, is a problem around the state, especially as the economy reopens and sales rebound, said Jon Bittner, executive director of the Alaska Small Business Development Center at the University of Alaska Anchorage. “If businesses can’t stay open to take advantage, it’s almost like it isn’t happening.”
Overall business income and jobs fell significantly in 2020 due to the pandemic, with hope for a strong rebound in 2022 for tourism — particularly cruise ship passengers, with a record 1.5 million berths available on ships coming to Southeast.
Until 2022, businesses had been hoping that this fall “would bring a return to normalcy,” the report said. “However, the highly contagious Delta variant (of COVID-19), coupled with declining vaccination rates, has meant that infection rates are going up instead of down, threatening gains in health and economic advancement.”
The other weak indicator in the “Southeast by the Numbers” report was that the region in 2020 lost population for the sixth consecutive year, dropping from 74,500 in 2014 to 72,286 in 2020.
“The elements that created population losses in recent years, most notably the reduction of state jobs and services, have been exacerbated by the 2020 COVID economy,” the report said. “Pandemic conditions will likely lead to further population decline.”
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