After a dismal 2020 and cautiously optimistic 2021, the economic outlook in Wrangell is improving, according to survey data collected by the Southeast Conference.
Economic director Carol Rushmore presented the data at the chamber of commerce’s economic forum last Friday. The event was intended to bring Wrangell business leaders, state and municipal government officials, and concerned citizens into conversation about economic problems facing the community.
Rushmore said her presentation offered a “30,000-foot summary of the economics of Wrangell” using data from a combination of state sources and Southeast Conference surveys. In 2020, she explained, the borough contracted with Rain Coast Data, a Southeast-based consulting firm, to provide a snapshot of how the community was faring before the pandemic hit. “2019 was a good year,” she said. “Trends were going up, it was positive for the community, for marine services, for tourism — things were looking good.”
Then, the Trident Seafood plant closed, and as the pandemic ravaged the local economy in 2020 business revenue throughout the borough dropped approximately 48%. In 2020, survey respondents laid off 36% of staff on average. Trident has now been closed for three summers in a row.
“What I’m presenting to you is depressing,” she said. “But I think everybody realizes that because we know what we went through in 2020 and 2021.”
According to survey data, local business leaders’ attitudes about the economic future soured as revenue decreased. In 2020 and 2021, only 6% of respondents believed that overall economic outlook of Wrangell was positive.
The 2021 survey was administered between April 9 and April 23, 2021. Representatives of 41 businesses responded.
Wrangell’s business prospects brightened in 2022, when 48% of respondents described the current business climate as “good.” However, the borough’s outlook still lags behind the 13 other Southeast communities that were surveyed, with Wrangell reporting the lowest percentage of positive responses. Ketchikan had the second fewest positive responses and Pelican had the most.
The borough plans to continue collecting economic data in future years, Rushmore said, and she anticipates that the increased momentum will continue into 2022. Based on anecdotal evidence, the airport, Marine Service Center and tourism industry have all been more active in 2022 than they were during the past two years. The Southeast Conference predicts that in 2023, the number of cruise ship passengers will return to pre-pandemic levels.
However, not all the trends Rushmore identified were positive. Wrangell has been losing population steadily since the sawmill closed in 1994. “We’re under 1980 population levels now,” she said.
The percentage of Wrangell community members over the age of 65 is the second largest in Alaska behind Haines, according to the state Department of Labor.
Reversing out-migration will be difficult since the borough’s limited housing capacity prevents new workers — especially young people with families — from moving to the island and making it a permanent home.
About 45% of businesses that responded to the Southeast Conference’s 2022 survey said that housing availability was a “significant barrier” for their organization, and 32% described housing as a “moderate barrier.”
Despite the sobering statistics she referenced, Rushmore ended her presentation by expressing confidence in Wrangell’s ability to regain economic stability as pandemic restrictions abate. “2022 should be much more positive,” she said. “We can only go up. We can only get better.”
After the mill closed in the 1990s, the community lost 10% of its employment and 30% of its payroll earnings overnight. “We went on a downward spiral,” said Rushmore. “But the community worked to figure out how to make a difference” by constructing the Nolan Center, Heritage Harbor and Marine Service Center.
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