Southeast Alaska saw a “stronger than expected” 6.5% increase in jobs in 2022 compared to the previous year, due to ongoing recovery from being one of the state’s hardest-hit regions during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Alaska Department of Labor.
A slower 2.5% increase in jobs is forecast for 2023, with a record cruise ship season plus growth in several industries including construction and a partial rebound of seafood processing.
Tourism-related industries and transportation had the highest rates of growth in Southeast Alaska as the region added 2,400 jobs instead of the 1,400 forecast in 2022, according to this month’s Alaska Economic Trends report from the department.
Seafood processing jobs saw the largest decline at 20%. Wrangell’s largest seafood processing plant, owned by Trident Seafoods, did not operate in 2022, its third shutdown year in a row.
“Southeast’s rebound over the last couple of years was more dramatic than other areas, but its economy also suffered more than most in 2020 when the pandemic eliminated nearly two years of tourism and closed many businesses and schools,” the report states. “Jobs began to return in 2021, with gains in eateries, transportation and seafood processing, and the recovery picked up steam in 2022.”
Among the most eye-catching numbers for Southeast Alaska in the report is the assumption there will be an all-time high of 1.6 million cruise ship passengers in 2023, assuming 100% occupancy aboard ships. That’s more optimistic than the 1.4 million visitors that local government and industry officials say is likely, based on occupancy rates that increased throughout the season last year and peaked at about 80%, said Meilani Schijvens, director of Rain Coast Data, which publishes annual economic assessments for the Southeast Conference.
“The real answer is nobody knows for sure,” she said.
Seafood processing is expected to see the highest percentage increase in jobs in 2023 at 8.3%, but that’s less than half of last year’s drop. Schijvens said the region’s worst seafood harvest on record occurred during the pandemic, and pink salmon harvests tend to alternate up and down years, with the coming year expected to be an up cycle.
The infrastructure bill, along with other federal funding such as the just-passed $1.7 trillion omnibus budget package, is also why another of the fastest-growing workforces during the coming year is expected to be a 6.3% increase in professional and business services, Schijvens said.
“We’ve got a lot of federal money on the ground right now, so there’s a lot of local governments and groups that can go after funding,” she said. “It’s not just studies. You’ve got design teams, architect drawings and all these different pieces so you can show you’re ready to build a building or build a port.”
Other top Southeast employment growth industries in 2023 compared to 2022 are forecast for construction at 6.7%, and leisure and hospitality — generally related to tourism — at 7.1%.
Statewide, a 1.7% increase in total jobs is forecast in 2023, led by resource industries including oil, gas and mining.
“Mines weathered the pandemic downturn well, and their growth will come from small workforce expansions across the board,” the report states. “Oil and gas, on the other hand, was hammered during COVID, losing nearly a quarter of its jobs in 2020,” but the industry’s gradual recovery is expected to continue this year.
A 4.1% increase in leisure and hospitality, and 4% increase in manufacturing are the other leading growth industries statewide.
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