As Alaskans from different organizations convened at the University of Alaska Anchorage to brainstorm ways to reverse the state’s continuing population outmigration, a leading state economist delivered some bad news.
Dan Robinson, research chief at the Alaska Department of Labor, revealed that the latest data shows that Alaska has now had 12 consecutive years with more residents leaving than arriving.
That is unprecedented, he said.
“This is not normal for us. It hasn’t happened before,” Robinson said on Sept. 5 at the start of the two-day meeting. The longest prior streak was four years, he said.
Robinson spoke at a meeting organized by Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola, UAA’s Institute of Social and Economic Research, the Alaska Federation of Natives and the First Alaskans Institute
Behind the outmigration statistics are specific patterns, he said.
The driver is not really the Alaskans who are leaving, he said. In 2023, 40,924 people moved out of the state, a smaller total than in any year since 2010, according to the department’s data. Rather, he said, is it the lack of people who are coming to Alaska. Less is known about them than about neighbors moving away, he said.
“It’s harder to tell stories about the people who don’t come,” he said.
Particularly important is the age of those who are not coming to Alaska, Robinson said. “Historically, our biggest net gains have been people in the second half of their 20s and 30s,” he said. Part of that is because of the military, and partly that is because Alaska is “an adventurous kind of place,” he said.
Added to the lack of new young adult Alaskans is the continued issue of college-age Alaskans who leave the state to attend school in the Lower 48, he said. The result is less economic vitality, he said. “It’s not a healthy sign,” he said.
Wrangell is suffering the same declining population count as many of the state’s communities. From almost 2,400 residents in the 2010 census, the community was down to just over 2,000 this year, according to state estimates, with the Department of Labor projecting 1,400 residents in 2050.
Even before the current outmigration streak started, Alaska’s population ebbs and flows were the subject of a lot of study. Mike Jones, an assistant economics professor working at ISER, ran through some of the Alaska population findings that have emerged over the years.
Within Alaska, factors affecting migration from rural to urban areas or between rural areas include reliance on and success with subsistence food harvests, availability of water and sewage service and rates of violent crime, past research has found, he said.
Within urban Alaska, there are also patterns.
Some of the most recent analysis reveals that population loss in Alaska’s largest city appears to be driven by military personnel reductions, according to a new analysis in Alaska Economic Trends, the monthly magazine of the Department of Labor’s research division.
The outflow of Anchorage residents over the past 14 years has largely been driven by reductions at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, that analysis found. The combined U.S. Air Force and U.S. Army base lost more than 2,600 people from 2010 to 2023, more than Anchorage’s overall loss of 2,173 people during the same period, according to the analysis.
Meanwhile, Alaska’s long-term overall demographic outlook appears dim. State demographers, in their most recent forecast, are predicting a population decline by mid-century that is driven by outmigration, reduced birth rates and the aging of residents.
Peltola, during a break in the sessions, said she was inspired to help organize the event because of widespread concern about Alaska’s dwindling working-age population.
The Alaska Beacon is an independent, donor-funded news organization. Alaskabeacon.com.
Reader Comments(0)