The ballot measure to repeal open primary elections and ranked-choice voting in general elections saw its lead narrow last week and then disappear on Monday, with a final vote count scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 20.
As of Monday afternoon, the repeal effort was behind by 192 votes out of more than 332,000 ballots cast on the measure.
State elections officials estimated there were about 5,000 ballots still to count this week, an assortment of early votes and mail-in absentee ballots.
The repeal initiative led by more than 4,100 votes after the Nov. 5 election night count, but that margin slipped to 2,841 and then 2,412 as more absentee and early ballots were counted last week, shrinking even further to 895 votes on Saturday. By Monday, the supporters of ranked-choice voting were ahead by 192 votes.
Alaskans in 2020 approved the switch from closed political party primaries and winner-take-all general elections to ranked-choice voting of the top four finishers from the primaries. The 2020 initiative passed by a victory margin of 3,781 votes out of 344,283 ballots cast.
“As I’ve watched where things ended, I held out the possibility that we might overtake,” and survive this year’s repeal effort, Bruce Botelho, chair of opposition group Alaskans for Better Elections, told the Juneau Empire over the weekend.
“I think the one thing that is clear — and it’s been stated often — is that whatever the outcome it’s going to be razor thin,” he said.
Ranked-choice voting, which requires that winning general election candidates have support from more than 50% of voters, was used in the 2022 and 2024 races for governor, the state Legislature, U.S. House and U.S. Senate.
The repeal initiative was the closest of the statewide issues on the Nov. 5 ballot. The measure to increase the minimum wage in Alaska and require employers to pay sick leave for their workers was far ahead before this week’s final count. The initiative was in front by more than 48,000 votes, 57.79% to 42.21% on Monday.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola looks headed to defeat in her race against Republican Nick Begich, who was leading on Monday by 7,223 votes, with just 5,000 still to count.
But because Begich was shy of the 50%-plus-one needed to win, at 48.53%, he will have to wait for the state Division of Elections to tally the second choice of the 15,951 voters who cast ballots for two fringe candidates. That tally and recalculation on Wednesday will most likely put Begich over the 50% threshold.
Begich claimed victory in a social media post on Nov. 15. Peltola’s campaign did not issue a statement over the weekend.
After the final votes are counted this week, voter turnout in the election will come in at close to 56%.
A half-dozen state legislative races remained in doubt as of the weekend, waiting for the final tally. The House seat representing Wrangell, Ketchikan and Metlakatla was not one of those close races. Republican Jeremy Bynum far outdistanced his two challengers, with 4,223, or 51.99% of the vote, over independents Agnes Moran, at 1,987, or 24.46%, and Grant EchoHawk, with 1,896 votes, 23.34%.
A coalition of mostly Democrats, with several independents and Republicans, has announced it will hold a majority of the 40-member House and will govern the chamber for the session that starts in January. Bynum has not announced his intentions to join the coalition or remain in a Republican minority.
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